Rory McIlroy is unlikely to have enough in the tank to move from nine strokes back to catch leader Brian Harman and win the 2023 Open Championship. However, McIlroy did offer some insight into what Harman (-12) will be facing over the final 18 holes at Royal Liverpool as he attempts to close out a Claret Jug and the first major of his career.
In 2014, McIlroy led by six going into the final round. He won that tournament by two after shooting an even-par 71 on Sunday. Harman leads by five this year over Cameron Young and six over the rest of the field. If he shoots 71, he will almost certainly join McIlroy (2014) and Tiger Woods (2006) as the last two winners on this course.
“It’s all in the mind,” McIlroy said in a documentary that was made about his Open win at this course back in 2014. “You’re far enough ahead that, if you can keep your mind in the right place, it’s going to be very hard for anyone to catch you. The week of the Open Championship, the Claret Jug is on your mind every day. It’s on your mind when you go to bed at night. It’s there. There’s a constant image of it in your head.”
It sure looked that way for Harman on Saturday as he bogeyed two of his first four holes and started to let the field back into the tournament. However, he played the next 13 in 4 under and kept the same lead (five strokes) he held after 36 holes.
“It would have been really easy to let the wheels start spinning and really kind of let it get out of control,” he said, “but I just kind of doubled down on my routine and knew I was hitting it well, even though I hadn’t hit any good shots yet. Staying patient out there is paramount. Sometimes it’s a lot harder than others. But really proud of the way that I hung in there.”
He should be. With the lead Harman had built, he did not need to do anything spectacular. He can eschew risk, play solidly from tee to green, not make any long putts and still maintain a lead. When you take the risk out of this (or any) golf course, it becomes a whole lot easier. That does not mean you don’t still have to hit the shots, but it does mean that you can, as Patrick Reed said Thursday, hit “aggressive shots on conservative lines.”
Physically, most of the work has been done by Harman. It will be a mental war the rest of the way. He does not need to shoot 67 to win. He may not even need to break par Sunday. What he will have to do, though, is not allow Young or Jon Rahm to get within two of his lead. If he lets something like that — which will likely happen at some point — get to him, that’s when the vortex of bad decision making begins and the tournament can actually start.
If Harman remains unfazed as he did Saturday, he’ll be sipping something special from the Claret Jug on Sunday.
“You’d be foolish not to envision, and I’ve thought about winning majors for my whole entire life,” he said on Saturday. “It’s the whole reason I work as hard as I do and why I practice as much as I do and why I sacrifice as much as I do. [Sunday], if that’s going to come to fruition for me, it has to be all about the golf. It has to be execution and just staying in the moment.”
He’s right. It’s so easy to say but so difficult to execute.
Let’s take a closer look at the only two men who can realistically catch Harman unless he completely unravels Sunday.
Cameron Young (-7, five back): The case for Young is that he’s destroying the field from tee to green and nothing has dropped. If he continues to hit it like he has the first three days, the opportunity to shoot something silly like 65 or better is going to be there. Still, he will have to make the putts, which is not what he’s done over the first 54 holes. Young sits first in the field from tee to green and 49th in putting going into the last 18 holes.
What’s interesting about Young is that he was in nearly this exact scenario a year ago when he and Cameron Smith trailed Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland by four going into the final around at St. Andrews. He shot 65 to finish solo second while Smith shot 64 in the same pairing to win the Claret Jug. So, not only can Young do this, he has done it within the last 12 months.
Still, when asked about that finish, Young deflected, more focused on the strategy of playing against a player with a big lead on Sunday afternoon.
“You just kind of have to see how the first couple holes play out [Sunday] and then you maybe start aiming at things that you might not otherwise,” said Young. “[Sunday] we’re going to plan on the same plan of attack as the last few days and kind of see where we are after a few holes.”
Jon Rahm (-6, six back): I’m not as confident in Rahm as I am in Young, and not just because he’s a stroke further back. His statistical profile does not lend itself to shooting another silly number like he will probably need to catch Harman. Saturday’s 63, while extraordinary, was probably Rahm emptying the tank. It’s nearly impossible to come from one off the cut line to hold a trophy 36 holes later. Could it happen? Sure. It’s Jon Rahm. Anything could happen. Is it likely that it will, though? Not so much.
Think about it this way: If Harman shoots 69 again, Rahm would have to deliver another 63 just to tie him. There have been 14 rounds of 63 in the 150-year history of this tournament. Are there going to be two on the same weekend from the same golfer to win the tournament?
Of course, Harman could blow up and bring both players back into it. But if that happens, then Rahm has a Young problem. The latter is simply playing better than the former this week. The path to victory for Rahm is a Harman collapse combined with Rahm leaning on his major championship winning experience late as Young enters the cauldron of the last few holes at or near the lead. While it is a path, it’s not particularly the one you want if you’re Rahm on a Saturday night at a major championship.
That’s it. Normally in this space, we look at a handful of golfers who could catch the leader on Sunday. It’s just that I don’t believe anyone else can win this golf tournament outside of these three. Even though there is a big group at 5 under that is technically in the top four on the leaderboard (Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Jason Day are included among that group), it would likely take Harman falling off significantly for the door to be open that wide.
It will be fascinating to see how Harman, Young and Rahm start Sunday. Will Harman slowly allow Young and Rahm back into the tournament? Will, as Young suggested, he and Rahm need to start taking lines they should not be taking — hitting inadvisable, risky golf shots as they try and run down the massive leader? We shall soon find out.
Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme discuss moving day at the 151st Open Championship. Moves were made, but Brian Harman’s lead is still massive with 18 holes remaining. It’s storylines, scorecards and betting favorites. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.